Of all the bets you can make, the moneyline is the purest: you simply pick a winner. But its simplicity can be deceptive. The real skill isn’t just picking who you think will win, but understanding if the price is right.
I’m Jakub Wojdanowicz. I’ve spent over 15 years working inside sportsbooks like Kambi, helping to manage the odds you see on your screen. I’m going to show you how to read between the lines of a moneyline bet, how to understand the value, and how to make smarter, more confident wagers.
What Is Moneyline Betting? A Real Canadian Example
Instead of betting on point spreads or complicated props, moneyline betting is straightforward: pick the team you think will win. That’s it.
Let me show you exactly how this works with a classic Canadian matchup:
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Montreal Canadiens
- Leafs: -150 (Favorite)
- Canadiens: +130 (Underdog)
Betting on the Favorite (Leafs at -150): The minus sign shows you how much you need to risk to win $100. In this case, you must bet $150 to win $100, for a total payout of $250.
Betting on the Underdog (Canadiens at +130): The plus sign shows you how much you win for every $100 you risk. Here, a $100 bet wins you $130, for a total payout of $230.
The math is simple once you understand the signs. Favorites have minus odds (you risk more to win less), underdogs have plus odds (you risk less to win more).
Why Are the Odds -150? A Look Inside the Sportsbook
When I worked at Kambi, our goal wasn’t to predict the winner, but to set odds that attract equal betting on both sides. The small commission we build in, known as the “vig” or “juice,” is how the sportsbook guarantees a profit.
Here’s what those Leafs vs. Canadiens odds really mean:
- Leafs at -150 = 60% implied probability to win
- Canadiens at +130 = 43.5% implied probability to win
- Total: 103.5% (that extra 3.5% is the sportsbook’s edge)
In a perfect world, those percentages would add up to 100%. That extra 3.5% is built into every line. To get this saved in your memory is your first step toward finding real betting value.
Our Strategies for Moneyline Betting
Forget the generic advice you see everywhere. Here are the strategies I developed from years inside the industry:
🧮 Pro Strategy #1: Price the Game Yourself First
Before you see the line, decide what you think the odds should be. Do you think the Leafs win this game 7 out of 10 times (a 70% chance)? The sportsbook’s -150 odds imply a 60% chance. That 10% gap between your number and their number is your potential value.
Most bettors do this backwards—they see the odds first, then try to justify them. Don’t fall into that trap.
⚡Pro Strategy #2: Hunt for ‘Live Underdogs’
If a strong favorite (like the Raptors) goes down by a few points early in the first quarter, their live moneyline odds can suddenly offer incredible value. Sportsbooks often overreact to early game scripts, and that’s a prime opportunity for sharp bettors.
I’ve seen odds swing from -200 to +150 after just 8 minutes of basketball. The key is knowing when a slow start is just noise versus a real problem.
🛒 Pro Strategy #3: Line Shopping Is Non-Negotiable
Getting -110 instead of -120 might not seem like much, but over 100 bets, that difference adds up to serious money. I always check at least three different sportsbooks before placing any bet.
For Canadian bettors, this means having accounts with multiple licensed operators. The 10-minute signup process pays for itself quickly.
Line shopping is the difference between profitable and losing bettors over the long term.
🔍 Pro Strategy #4: Focus on Sports You Actually Watch
Sounds obvious, but most bettors ignore this. If you watch every Raptors game, you’ll notice things the public (and sometimes the oddsmakers) miss. Kyle Lowry playing through an injury, bench chemistry issues, travel fatigue—these factors don’t always show up in the stats but absolutely affect outcomes.
How to Place Your First Moneyline Bet: Step-by-Step
Here’s exactly how to place a moneyline bet, from someone who’s seen both sides of the transaction:
- Choose a Licensed Ontario Sportsbook: Look for operators licensed by your provincial regulator if you reside in Ontario. If you reside somewhere else you may bet on any offshore betting site.
- Navigate to Your Sport: Find “NHL,” “NBA,” or whatever league you want to bet on.
- Select the Moneyline: Games will show three main bet types: Spread, Total, and Moneyline. Click on the moneyline odds for the team you want to back.
- Enter Your Stake: The bet will appear in your “Bet Slip.” Type in the amount you want to wager.
- Double-Check Everything: The slip shows your risk amount and potential payout. Make sure both numbers look right.
- Confirm Your Bet: Click “Place Bet” to confirm. Most sportsbooks will send you a confirmation email.
Pro Tip: Start small while you’re learning. There’s no shame in betting $10 or $20 while you get comfortable with the process.
Understanding Moneyline Payouts
At the end of the game, your bet gets graded one of three ways:
Win: Your team won. You get back your original stake plus your winnings.
Loss: Your team lost. You forfeit your stake.
Push/Tie: Rare in most sports, but some soccer leagues include ties in their moneyline markets. In hockey, regular season games that end tied go to overtime/shootout, so there’s always a winner for moneyline purposes.
When Moneyline Betting Makes the Most Sense
Not every game is right for moneyline betting. Here’s when I focus on straight win/loss wagers:
Heavy Favorites: When a team is -300 or higher, the spread might be too large to feel comfortable with. Sometimes taking the favorite straight up at a lower payout feels safer.
Pick’em Games: When odds are close to even (-110/-110), moneyline betting eliminates the complexity of point spreads.
Live Betting: In-game moneyline odds change constantly, creating opportunities that don’t exist pre-game.
Sports Without Spreads: Tennis, MMA, soccer—sports where margins of victory matter less than simply winning.
FAQs
Yes, moneyline bets work perfectly in parlays. Just remember that each additional leg makes your bet harder to win, even if the individual picks seem easy.
In some sports, a tie results in a push, and your stake is refunded.
It depends on the situation. Moneyline bets are simpler and better when you’re confident about the winner but unsure about the margin. Spreads can offer better value when favorites are heavily juiced.
Once the game starts, injuries don’t affect your bet. If you bet on a tennis player and they retire in the second set, that’s typically graded as a loss.
Compare the same bet across multiple sportsbooks. Also, convert the odds to implied probability and ask yourself if that percentage feels right based on your research.
Generally no. When a team is -400 or higher, you’re risking a lot to win very little. Look for better value elsewhere unless you’re absolutely certain.
My Final Take on Moneyline Betting
Remember, moneyline betting is easy to learn but takes practice to master. Focus less on who will win and more on whether the odds offer value. If you can do that consistently, you’re already ahead of 90% of bettors out there.
The biggest mistake I see? Betting with your heart instead of your head. I’m a Leafs fan, but that doesn’t mean I bet on them every game. Sometimes the best bet is staying away entirely.
Start small, stay disciplined, and always remember: the house built those odds for a reason. Your job is to find the spots where they got it wrong.